Projecting the Blue Jays' 2024 Starting Rotation

Alright, Jays fans, let’s talk about the most important puzzle the front office has to solve this offseason: the starting rotation. We all felt the sting of 2023’s playoff exit, and a huge part of building a team that can finally break through in the American League East and make a real run at the World Series starts on the mound. Projecting next year’s rotation isn't just about naming five guys; it's about understanding the team's payroll, assessing internal options, and predicting what moves GM Ross Atkins might make.

In this guide, we’ll walk through a practical, step-by-step process to build your own informed projection for the Blue Jays' 2025 starting staff. By the end, you'll have a clear framework for understanding the decisions ahead, from the locked-in veterans to the potential surprise arms. Consider this your playbook for the offseason pitching chatter.

What You'll Need

Before we dive into the steps, let's get our ducks in a row. You don't need a scouting degree, but having a few things at your fingertips will make this projection much sharper:

The Current Roster: A basic understanding of who is currently under contract. You can always find the latest on our /blue-jays-roster-updates page.
A Dose of Realism: The Jays operate with a large but not limitless budget. We're not signing three top-tier free agents.
Knowledge of Key Dates: The offseason calendar—like free agency opening, the tender deadline, and Winter Meetings—dictates the timing of moves.
An Open Mind: Prospects emerge, trades happen, and injuries occur. The best projection leaves room for the unexpected.

---

Your Step-by-Step Process to Project the 2024 Rotation

Follow these steps in order to build a logical, layered projection.

Step 1: Lock In the Absolute Certainties

Start with the no-doubt-about-it names. These are the pitchers whose spots are 100% secure, barring a completely unforeseen trade.

Kevin Gausman: The ace. The Cy Young contender. He’s the definitive Opening Day starter and the workhorse at the top.
Jose Berrios: After his magnificent bounce-back season, Berrios is a cornerstone. His contract and performance make him a surefire #2 starter.

Status: Two spots filled. Gausman and Berrios are your 1-2 punch.

Step 2: Evaluate the "Likely, But Not Guaranteed" Incumbent

This is where nuance comes in. Look at players who ended the season in the rotation but might have questions surrounding them.

Yusei Kikuchi: He had a transformative, excellent first half in 2023. While he faded a bit later, his overall performance was a massive win. The Jays likely see him as a valuable #4 or #5 starter, especially with his contract option for 2024 being a relative bargain. He’s very likely back, but the team could explore trades if they want to reallocate that money.

Status: Spot #3 is tentatively filled by Kikuchi. Pencil him in lightly.

Step 3: Account for the Major Free Agent

Every offseason has key departures. The Jays' biggest this year is a rotation staple.

Hyun Jin Ryu: His contract is up. While he provided stability after returning from Tommy John surgery, he is not a lock to return. The Jays may prefer a pitcher with more upside or durability. For now, you must project this spot as a vacancy to be filled externally.

Status: Spot #4 is officially an OPEN COMPETITION / EXTERNAL ADDITION.

Step 4: Analyze the Internal Candidates for the Final Spot(s)

Before looking outside, see what's in the cupboard. The Jays have a few arms who will be vying for a job, either as the #5 starter or as depth.

Alek Manoah: This is the million-dollar question. After a disastrous 2023, his status is completely up in the air. Do the Jays and Manager John Schneider trust him to reclaim his spot after a full reset? He will come to spring training with a chance, but he cannot be projected as a lock. He’s the biggest wild card.
Bowden Francis & Mitch White: Francis impressed in multi-inning relief and could be a swingman or depth starter. White will be out of options and needs to make the team, likely as a long reliever or spot starter.
The Prospect Pipeline: This is where you should check our analysis on /blue-jays-top-prospects-2024-roster-impact. Names like Ricky Tiedemann (if healthy), Chad Dallas, or Sem Robberse could push for a mid-season call-up, but it’s rare for the Jays to break camp with a rookie in the rotation unless he’s a can’t-miss talent.

Status: Spot #5 is a COMPETITION between a rehabilitating Alek Manoah and any external addition. A sixth "depth" spot is crucial.

Step 5: Project the External Moves (Free Agency & Trades)

This is the fun part—playing GM. The Jays need at least one, likely two, starting pitchers. Use logic based on the team's history and needs.

The "Stabilizing Veteran" Archetype: The Jays love this move (think Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi). They could target a mid-rotation arm to provide 180+ reliable innings. This pitcher would essentially take Ryu’s spot.
The High-Upside, Short-Term Gamble: If they believe in Manoah’s comeback, they might add a pitcher with injury history or great stuff needing refinement on a one or two-year deal to compete for the #5 job.
The Trade Route: With a catching surplus (Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen) and a deep farm system, a trade for a controllable starter is very plausible. This is often Atkins' preferred method for impactful pitching.

Your Projection Here: I project the Jays will sign one mid-tier free agent (e.g., a Marcus Stroman reunion, or a pitcher like Michael Wacha) AND acquire one more starter via trade, using prospect capital.

Step 6: Don't Forget the Bullpen Chain Reaction

A move for a starter can come from the bullpen. Could a dominant reliever like Yimi García or Jordan Hicks be stretched out? Unlikely, but it has happened. More importantly, adding two starters pushes everyone else down a notch, creating better bullpen and depth options. It also directly impacts the 40-man roster, a topic we cover in our /blue-jays-rule-5-draft-eligibility-guide.

---

Pro Tips & Common Mistakes to Avoid

TIP: Think in "Innings," Not Just "Names." The goal is to assemble a group that can deliver 900+ quality innings to protect the bullpen, featuring Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson. Durability matters as much as talent.
TIP: Follow the Financial Breadcrumbs. The money committed to George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and the core means the Jays will spend, but wisely. They won't be in on the absolute top of the market (like Yoshinobu Yamamoto), but the tier just below.
MISTAKE: Over-relying on Alek Manoah. Hope for the best, plan for the worst. The prudent projection has him starting in Triple-A or in a long-relief role until he proves he's back. Counting on him for 30 starts is a major risk.
MISTAKE: Ignoring Depth. You need at least 8-10 viable starting options to get through a MLB season. Your projection isn't complete without naming the 6th, 7th, and 8th starters (e.g., Francis, White, a minor league free agent).
* MISTAKE: Forgetting the Schedule. The AL East is a beast. The rotation must be built to face the Yankees, Orioles, and Rays 19 times each. Stuff and versatility matter more than ever.

---

Your 2024 Blue Jays Rotation Projection Checklist

Here’s a summary of the entire process. Run through this list to build your own projection:

• Lock in the Certainties: Write down Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios as your #1 and #2.


• Evaluate the Likely Incumbent: Pencil in Yusei Kikuchi for the #3 or #4 spot, noting his option makes him probable.


• Account for Key Free Agents: Mark Hyun Jin Ryu’s spot as "To Be Filled Externally."


• Audit Internal Options: List Alek Manoah, Bowden Francis, and top prospects as competitors for the final spot, but do not lock them in.


• Project One External Free Agent Signing: Identify a realistic mid-rotation target to fill the "stabilizing veteran" role.


• Project One Trade for a Starter: Consider the roster (catchers, infielders) and prospect capital to predict a trade for a controllable arm.


• Arrange Your Final Five: Slot your two new additions with Gausman, Berrios, and Kikuchi to form your projected Opening Day rotation.


• Define the Depth: Name your 6th and 7th starters (e.g., Manoah, Francis) and one minor league depth option.


• Consider the Ripple Effects: Note how your projection affects the bullpen, bench, and 40-man roster.

So, what’s my final projection? I see a rotation of Gausman, Berrios, a trade acquisition (like a Dylan Cease or Shane Bieber), a free agent signing (like Marcus Stroman), and Kikuchi, with Manoah and Francis providing crucial depth from Buffalo. That’s a group with the top-end talent and necessary depth to compete in October at the Rogers Centre.

Now it’s your turn. Run through the checklist, make your calls, and let’s see what Ross Atkins has in store this winter. The journey to the 2024 World Series begins with these decisions.